The Championship Play-Off Lottery!

The gloves are off!

Promotion to the English Premier league (EPL) next season and the huge financial windfall that goes with it is oh so close that clubs and their fans' can almost taste the sweet smell of success! It is akin to dangling a scratch and sniff card in front of a host of clubs, except that this season, for some inexplicable reason the clubs in the race for promotion seem to have lost their sense of smell!

With just eight games to go in the npower Championship there are seven teams that are in with a realistic shout of going up automatically. For those clubs that fail to make the two automatic places and with it a guaranteed place in the top flight of English football next season, four of them must face the drama and potential pain or elation that is part and parcel of the play-off lottery!

Cardiff look almost certain to go up automatically, probably as champions, but that still leaves one automatic promotion spot available, and six teams to fight it out for the right to take their place in the English Premier League at the start of the 2013/14 season.

The teams that fail to take that final automatic spot following a ten month season spanning 46 games will then have the outcome of their season defined by just two, possibly three matches. There is no single sporting event in the world more valuable to the winners, than the victors of the play-offs, who will end up approximately £85million better off, predominately made up from the commercial television revenue that the English Premier League generates. However, by convention the two finalists agree that the loser will keep all the gate receipts from the game, so as to very slightly soften the financial blow of missing out.......(at a guess i would say a figure in the region of £3million - peanuts in comparison).

The Football League Championship play-offs are a series of matches contested by the teams finishing from 3rd to 6th in the Football League Championship table. The semi-finals are played over two legs, with 6th playing 3rd and 5th playing 4th, with the return fixtures following. The final is played at Wembley Stadium and the winners are promoted to the English Premier League.

Cardiff have been top for sometime now, and although they have had the odd wobble over the last few months, so have everyone else around them. Taking Cardiff out of the equation as they are nine points clear of dropping out of the top two places, the battle for the second automatic spot is between Hull, Watford, Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Leicester and Brighton with Bolton and Middlesbrough in a position to pounce should the wheels fall off of any of the aforementioned clubs in the final month of the 2012/13 season.

As I write only two points separate 2nd placed Hull from 3rd placed Watford, just three points separate Hull from 4th placed Crystal Palace, while six points separate Palace from 6th placed Leicester. Brighton lie 7th on the same number of points as Leicester, but with an inferior goal difference.

Looking at the run-in:

Hull still have to play Watford, Middlesbrough and Cardiff, but face difficult games against Barnsley, Bristol City, Ipswich and Wolves, who are all fighting for Championship survival at the bottom.

Watford's fixtures obviously include Hull, but also Cardiff and Leicester and potentially tricky games against Peterborough and Blackburn who are both fighting to stay in the division.

Forest's run in includes games against Brighton, Cardiff, Middlesbrough and Leicester along with struggling Barnsley and Blackpool.

Leicester's fixtures include games against Brigthon, Bolton, Watford, Palace and Forest and they like Hull and Forest face Barnsley.

Brighton's run in includes matches against Forest, Leicester,and Middlesbrough, along with relegation candidates Wolves and Peterborough and struggling Blackpool.

Crystal Palace would seem to have the easier of the run-ins, but as anyone who watches Championship football knows, there are no easy games in this league hence why no teams have run away at the top or been cast adrift at the bottom. Four points separate the bottom four clubs, and only eight points separate the bottom eleven.

Palace only play Leicester of the current top ten teams, but face a plethora of fixtures against struggling sides, namely Blackpool, Barnsley, Ipswich, Blackburn and Peterborough on the final day.

You can argue that it's better to play teams around you at the top as you are in control of your own destiny, but at the same time they are the form sides. On the otherhand playing the bottom sides may seem a better option, but they will be fighting for their lives and definitely won't role over easily. Perhaps fixtures against mid-table teams with nothing to play for is the best option, but to be honest this is not a division where any one team has the 'right' to beat another team, and the higher you finish the more that club earns financially.

There will also be players at all clubs in the division playing for new contracts or looking to impress the powers that be at other clubs. At the end of the day as a club you firstly need to get out and win your own fixtures, then you will have done everything in your power to put yourself in a the best possible position come the end of the season. What will be will be, but at the end of the day you cannot rely on other teams to do you so called 'favours.'

When the Championship play-offs were first introduced for the 1986/87 season, they originally featured a top flight team as well as the three second tier clubs. This format was continued for the 1987/88, but discontinued afterwards to include only the four teams who finished behind the team or teams winning automatic promotion. As before, the semi-final and final were both two-legged.                                              

                                                              

        The New Wembley Stadium

Since 1989/90, the final has been a single game, played at Wembley Stadium, although from 2001 to 2006, it was played at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, while Wembley was being rebuilt.              

Ipswich Town have been in the Championship play-offs a record seven times: 1987, 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000, 2004, and 2005, making the final only once and winning it in 2000.

Leicester City have reached the Championship play-off final four times, losing two in 1992 and                 1993 and winning two in 1994 and 1996.

Crystal Palace have also appeared in the final four times, losing in 1996 and winning in 1989, 1997 and 2004.

Birmingham City have reached the Championship play-offs four times consecutively from 1999 to 2002, losing the first three attempts before, in 2002, reaching the Play-Off Final at the Millennium Stadium, and finally winning promotion to the Premier League.

The team finishing highest in the league (third) has succeeded in winning promotion ten times out of twenty-six seasons up to 2012, with the 4th placed team managing four promotions, the 5th six promotions and the 6th five promotions.

The play-off winners have managed to finish above the Championship winners and runners-up in the subsequent Premier League season on five occasions: Blackburn Rovers in 1992/93, Leicester City in 1996/97, Ipswich Town in 2000/01, West Ham United in 2005/06 and Swansea City in 2011/12.

Championship Play-Off Records:

Most play-off promotions: 3 – Crystal Palace (1989, 1997, 2004)

Most play-off finals: 4 – Crystal Palace, Leicester City

Most play-off final defeats: 3 – Sheffield United (1997, 2003, 2009)

Most play-off participations: 7 – Ipswich Town

Most unsuccessful play-off participations: 6 – Ipswich Town (from 7 in total)

Teams without any unsuccessful play-off participations: Notts County (1991), Hull City (2008), Burnley (2009), Swansea City (2011)

Biggest aggregate win: Chelsea 6–1 Blackburn Rovers (1988); Leicester City 6–1 Cambridge United (1992); and Hull City 6–1 Watford (2008)

Biggest home win: Leicester City 5–0 Cambridge United (Semi-final, 1992)

Biggest away win: Birmingham City 0–4 Barnsley (Semi-final, 2000)

Biggest win in a final: Bolton Wanderers 3–0 Preston North End (2001); Sheffield United 0–3 Wolverhampton Wanderers (2003); and Leeds United 0–3 Watford (2006)

Highest scoring final: 8 goals – Charlton Athletic 4–4 Sunderland (1998)

Highest scoring play-off match: 8 goals – Charlton Athletic 4–4 Sunderland (Final, 1998); Ipswich Town 5–3 Bolton Wanderers (Semi-final, 2000)

Highest scoring tie (aggregate): 12 goals – Ipswich Town 7–5 Bolton Wanderers (2000)

Highest attendance: 86,703 – Bristol City vs Hull City (Final, 2008)

Lowest attendance: 9,225 – Cambridge United vs Leicester City (Semi-final, 1992).

The English Premier League:

The competition formed as the FA Premier League on 20 February 1992 following the decision of clubs in the Football League First Division to break away from The Football League, which was originally founded in 1888, and take advantage of a lucrative television rights deal. This deal will be worth £3 billion as of 2013–14, with BSkyB and BT Group securing the rights to broadcast 116 and 38 games respectively.

The Premier League is the most-watched football league in the world, broadcast in 212 territories to 643 million homes and a TV audience of 4.7 billion people.

The Premier League distributes a small portion of its television revenue to clubs that are relegated from the league in the form of "parachute payments". At the end of the current season 2012/13 those clubs relegated from the EPL will get a proposed £23m in the first year after relegation and £18m in the second, followed by £9m a year in years three and four!

In contrast Championship clubs that are not in receipt of parachute payments will receive around £2.3m in solidarity payments. This ridiculously one sided financial divide is currently being looked into by The Football League as they attempt to look at ways of mitigating the advantage of parachute payments handed to clubs relegated to the Championship. Some Football League Club owners who attended a summit meeting last Wednesday (20th March 2013) claimed they may have to walk away from the game if they were forced to compete with clubs that received more in parachute payments than their entire budget for the year.

Attached is a link to The Guardian's article on the subject right here!

Congratulations To All The Play-Off Winning Teams of 2009

Burnley (left) celebrate promotion to the Premier League yesterday, after their 1-0 victory over Sheffield United, thanks to a spectacular 13th minute long range strike from Wade Elliott.










Scunthorpe United (right) celebrate promotion to The Championship after their thrilling 3-2 victory over Millwall on Sunday.







Gillingham (left) celebrate promotion to League One after Simeon Jackson's last minute minute header defeated Shrewsbury Town on Saturday.









Torquay United (right) celebrate promotion back to the Football League, after beating Cambridge United 2-0 in the Blue Square Premier League play-off final at Wembley on the 17th May.

‘Best Bet Special’ Championship Play-Off Final Betting Tips with Betfair

Hello, I'm Tom Mallows and welcome to my final betting preview of the season as we look forward to the three play-off finals, with a particular focus on the Championship Play-Off Final 

I correctly predicted that it would be Burnley and Sheffield United who would meet at Wembley this Monday, to contest the £60 million prize that awaits the winners.
Here’s hoping I can help win you some cash with my 'best bet' tips.


Burnley v Sheffield Utd

Mon 25th May KO 15.00 LIVE ON SKY SPORTS

It's a war of the roses in this year’s instalment of the play-off final. The multi-million pound goldmine of the Premier League awaits the winners, and for the losers - all their hard work over the past season will amount to nothing!
Expect tears, drama, shredded nerves and no shortage of excitement. They are horrible matches to be involved in, but are exciting to watch – and great to have a flutter on!

Burnley:
Owen Coyle’s 'Clarets' have certainly served up a rich vintage this season. With a small squad and despite playing 60 games already this season, they are showing no sign of letting up - their convincing 3-0 aggregate win over Reading in the semi-final is proof to that.
Can he guide the Lancashire club to the top division for the first time in 33 years?

Sheffield United:
United go into this game fuelled with a sense of injustice. The fall-out from the Carlos Tevez affair still wrangles within the Yorkshire club. They still feel in part a sense of injustice in their relegation from the Premier League in 2007, revolving around the 'illegal' third-party ownership of Tevez, then a West Ham player.
I feel they will never be satisfied until they feel they are back where they belong.
Kevin Blackwell has some bad memories of his own to banish. The last time he was involved in a Championship play-off final it cost his job as boss of Leeds, as they were hammered 3-0 by Watford in the 2006 final.

Current Match odds (90 mins only):

Burnley 2/1 Sheff United 13/8 Draw 12/5

Scorecast:
Burnley 1-0 15/2 2-0 15/1 2-1 11/1 3-0 45/1

Sheff U 0-1 7/1 0-2 14/1 1-2 10/1 0-3 37/1

Draw 0-0 17/2 1-1 6/1 2-2 18/1

My 'best bet' football prediction:
It will be tight, tense, nervy affair and I wouldn’t rule out extra time and/or penalties. But I feel the Blades' may have just enough to blunt 'Coyle's Clarets.'
A narrow victory by the odd goal will secure a return to the top flight for United, after a two year absence.
Sheffield Utd 1-0 win @ 7/1


The Best Of The Rest:

League One Play-off Final
Millwall v Scunthorpe
Sunday 24th May KO 13.00 LIVE ON SKY SPORTS

Kenny Jacket's Millwall were mightily impressive in their disposal of Leeds in the semi-final, whilst Scunthorpe booked their place at Wembley by beating Bury on penalties. Some might say luck is on the side of Nigel Adkins' Irons, but I still think the Lions will come out on top in this one.
Millwall 2-1 win @ 9/1


League Two Play-off Final
Gillingham v Shrewsbury
Saturday 23rd May KO 15.00 LIVE ON SKY SPORTS

Both teams have decent strikers in Jackson (Gillingham) and Holt (Shrewsbury) with 39 goals between them this season.
Way back in September the Gills were on the end of a 7-0 league hiding at the hands of their hosts on Saturday.
However eight months is a long time in football, and I fancy the Gills to seal an immediate return back to League One.
Gillingham 2-0 win @ 10/1

'Best Bet Special' - 2nd Leg Play-Off Betting Tips with Betfair

Hello and welcome to the second leg of my 'special' edition guest blog. I am going to be previewing this week's 2nd leg play-off fixtures, and in particular those games involving Championship sides.
Drama, nerves and excitement are guaranteed, but hopefully I can also try and win you some cash with my best bet tips.
 
I told you last Wednesday predicting the play-off was hard, and as if to prove the point a narrow victory for Burnley was the only game I got right! Here’s hoping for better luck this week:


Sheff United v Preston - 2nd leg

Mon 11th May KO 19.45 LIVE ON SKY SPORTS

It is still all to play for at Bramall Lane after the two sides couldn’t be separated in the first game at Deepdale. Sean St Ledger gave Preston the lead only to be pegged by back Brian Howard minutes into the second half. With no away goals rule this one could go all the way to penalty kicks.

Current Match odds:

Sheff U 11/10 Preston 3/1 Draw 12/5

Scorecast:
Sheff U 1-0 7/1 2-0 17/2 2-1 8/1 3-0 17/1

Preston 0-1 17/2 0-2 20/1 1-2 13/1 0-3 69/1

Draw 0-0 17/2 1-1 6/1 2-2 15/1

My 'best bet' prediction:

It is almost too close to call but I am going to stick my neck out and tips United to go through - but only after extra time or penalties. I think it will be level after the 90 minutes.
1-1 draw @ 15/2


Reading v Burnley - 2nd leg

Tuesday 12th May KO 19.45 LIVE ON SKY SPORTS

Despite having an array of attacking talent on show, Saturday’s first leg failed to live up to expectations. The game looked to be heading for a bore draw until a moment of madness by Andre Bikey. The Reading defender inexplicably pulled back Stephen Thompson in the area with only six minutes of the match remaining. Referee Martin Atkinson pointed to the spot, and Graham Alexander duly converted the penalty to give the Clarets a vital first-leg lead.

Current Match odds:

Reading Evens Burnley 16/5 Draw 5/2

Scorecast:
Reading 1-0 7/1 2-0 9/1 2-1 8/1 3-0 20/1

Burnley 0-1 12/1 0-2 25/1 1-2 14/1 0-3 79/1

Draw 0-0 10/1 1-1 6/1 2-2 16/1

My 'best bet' prediction:

Steve Coppell's Reading team are in poor form of late, and they will have to produce a much improved performance on Tuesday night if they want to progress any further.
Meanwhile Owen Coyle's Burnley have been going great guns of late, and I fancy them to grind out a draw at the Madejski Stadium, and book themselves a place at Wembley on May 25th.
O-O draw @ 10/1


The Best Of The Rest:
Eight other teams face off this week in the race to earn promotion from Leagues One and Two.

Here are my predictions:

Home wins:
Sunday 10th May KO 18.30 Gillingham v Rochdale
Thursday 14th May KO 19.45 Leeds v Millwall

Draws:
Sunday 10th May KO Noon Bury v Shrewsbury
Friday 15th May KO 19.45 MK Dons v Scunthorpe

'Best Bet Special' - 1st Leg Play-Off Betting Tips with Betfair

Hello and welcome to a 'special' edition of my guest blog, previewing this weekend's 1st leg play-off fixtures, and in particular looking at The Championship as four teams fight it out for that lucrative final promotion place, that will ultimately take them to the 'promise land' - The Premier League.

Drama, nerves and excitement are guaranteed but hopefully I can also try and win you some cash with my 'best bet' tips.

Last time out I correctly predicted two home wins and two draws in my sections list so here’s hoping for more correct football predictions this week.

Preston North End v Sheff United

Friday 8th May KO 19.45 LIVE ON SKY SPORTS

Going into the final 45 minutes of the season Alan Irvine’s Preston were still outside the play-off places. But a Sean St-Ledger header against QPR coupled with Sheffield Wednesday’s defeat of Cardiff saw the Lilywhites sneak through in dramatic style, at the expense of The Bluebirds. Kevin Blackwell’s Blades still held hopes of automatic promotion on the last day, but with Birmingham ending the campaign with a win they had to be content with a play-off spot.

Current Match odds:

Preston 13/8   Sheff Utd 2/1 Draw 12/5

Scorecast:
Preston 1-0 15/2 2-0 13/1 2-1 11/1 3-0 37/1

Sheff U 0-1  8/1 0-2 16/1 1-2 12/1 0-3 47/1

Draw 0-0 9/1 1-1 6/1 2-2 18/1

My ‘best bet’ prediction:

Tight, passionate and tense – all the attributes we expect from the play-offs. Preston know they need to take some sort of result over the Pennines' for the 2nd leg, and they have been in good form at Deepdale recently. Because of that I am going for a narrow home win.
Preston 1-0 win @ 15/2 

Burnley v Reading

Saturday 9th May KO 17.20 LIVE ON SKY SPORTS

Burnley’s mammoth season continues – this will be their 59th game of a campaign, which has also included a journey to the FA Cup fifth round and the semi-final of the Carling Cup. Standing in their way is Steve Coppell’s Reading. Pre-season favourites for automatic promotion the Royals will be disappointed to have finished 4th, as they now face the lottery of the play-offs. However with last year’s final day relegation still fresh in the memory, they will be hungry and determined to make a return to the Premier League at the first attempt.     

Current Match odds:

Burnley 6/4 Reading 2/1 Draw 5/2      

Scorecast:
Burnley 1-0 15/2 2-0 13/1 2-1 10/1 3-0 33/1

Reading 0-1  17/2 0-2 17/1 1-2 12/1 0-3 45/1

Draw 0-0 9/1 1-1 6/1 2-2 17/1

My ‘best bet’ prediction:

Burnley are a tough proposition at Turf Moor, and despite their long season they are showing no apparent signs of fatigue. I think they will take a valuable lead to the Madejski Stadium for the 2nd leg.
Burnley 2-1 win @ 10/1


The Best Of The Rest:
Eight other teams face off this week in the race to earn promotion from Leagues One and Two. 

Here are my predictions:

Home win:
Thursday 7th May KO 19.45 Rochdale v Gillingham

Away win:
Friday 8th Mat KO 19.45 Scunthorpe v MK Dons

Draws:
Saturday 9th May KO 12.45 Millwall v Leeds
Thursday 7th May KO 19.45 Shrewsbury v Bury

The Play-Offs - 21 Years Of Reasons To Shed Tears Of Joy & Despair!

As the football season creeps past the half-way stage, supporters of many clubs up & down the country must be looking at their OWN clubs current plight, & thinking not where they want to finish, (we all want OUR team to finish top!) but where realistically would be a reasonable, acceptable, honest, achievable position come the end of the season in May.

I am, as it happens just one of those fans!

My Club, Crystal Palace (a club I support with a passion) are currently a respectable eighth in the Championship, have not got a proverbial pot to piss in financially, due mainly to an oversized squad of mediocre players with limited ability on impermeable contracts, (that we cannot shift even if we were to try & offload them at a Sunday morning boot fair), along with its fair share of internal wrangling.

I am not using this as a platform for slinging mud or lambasting my own Club, as I am well aware that quite a few football clubs are in similar situations, due in part to the current financial climate.

On a positive note, we at Palace have one of the best young academy's in the country, which we acknowledge as fans & is something we are all very proud of.
It is a fantastic achievement by the Club & I am sure the quality of the young players coming through is something that other clubs of our size & ilk can only dream about!

I digress.......where was I, the play-offs.

This season the Championship has thus far been dominated by three clubs, basically leaving the rest of the league to scrap it out for the remaining three places that would secure a play-off spot, & the potentially lucrative opportunity to reach the 'promised land' of the Premier League.
In doing so this would generate an estimated cash injection of £30million plus to the successful team, depending on what one chooses to utilize as their source of information.

This Championship season boasts a number of low, medium & high profile clubs jostling for the remaining play-off places, including the likes of Sheffield United, Burnley, Preston, QPR, Cardiff, Swansea & Ipswich, as well as Palace.

The play-offs were introduced in 1986/87, so there have been 21 previous years of reasons for supporters to shed tears & joy or despair at some point since the late 1980's.
Martin Lange was the man responsible for the end-of-season extravaganza. Lange saw promotion play-offs as a means of rekindling supporter interest in the lower divisions, thereby bringing the clubs much-needed extra income.
The play-offs remain with us today because they have met, and arguably exceeded their expectations.
Since their introduction attendances across the lower three divisions have more than doubled. It is hard to argue that Lange's innovation has been at least partly responsible for such a dramatic increase.

Supporters have accepted the play-offs with a mixture of enthusiasm & intrepidation. The matches themselves invariably produce extraordinary levels of drama, incredible scorelines & the reason for this has in part been due to an astonishing number of crucial late goals!

Of course, a sudden-death contest determining a club's fate for the whole of the season inevitably leads to heightened emotions, the fall-out from which has given plenty of ammunition to opponents of the system.

In the Championship play-offs the disappointment has been greatest for Preston & Ipswich, with a record six unsuccessful attempts each. No other clubs have tackled the play-offs so often, so unsuccessfully!

Crystal Palace though, are the undisputed play-off masters. Palace have one of the best overall records in the play-offs, with three victories, a losing final and two losing semi-finals. And all of them were for a place in the top division.

In the first two seasons the play-offs were introduced, the third to fifth sides from what was then the 'old' Division 2 competed with the fourth from bottom side in the 'old' Division 1.
In most other seasons the play-offs were for the third to sixth placed sides, but in both 1990/91 and 1994/95 this was different due to League restructuring.
In the first of those years the fourth to seventh sides took part whilst in 1994/95 it was the second to fifth sides.

Ignoring those first two seasons when the format was significantly different, the winners of the play-off final in the other 19 seasons have been:

Highest placed club - 6 times
Second highest placed club - 4 times
Third highest placed club - 5 times
Lowest placed club - 4 times

These statistics simply emphasise the fact that there is no real benefit in finishing in a higher League position.

Of the six teams in total that have finished third in the league and were promoted via the play-offs to the top flight, three of those teams have been in the last three consecutive seasons, namely Watford, Derby & Hull.

For the record in 1989/90 the winners at Wembley were not actually promoted. Although Swindon Town beat Sunderland in the final, it was the losing side who were eventually promoted after Swindon were punished for financial irregularities.

If Palace can make the play-offs come May, then I feel as a fan we will have by far & away over-achieved our pre-season expectations, but once there we all know it becomes a lottery, & in Neil Warnock, Palace have a man & a manager who CAN win the jackpot!